The first article in this volume is entitled “Agricultural output on Economics Growth: The Nigerian case”, the authors investigated the contribution of the agricultural sectors output to the growth of domestic economy in Nigeria for the period 1990-2017. Although empirical in nature, the authors have synthesized the nomenclature for seamless understanding. A major recommendation was hinged on government increasing its budgetary allocation on agriculture in order to boost the growth performance of the sector amongst other points.

The second article entitled “Ditch the Naira and champion the Eco: A post forex crisis assessment” advocates for the ECOWAS Monetary Union as a potential solution to the constraints and vulnerabilities of the Nigerian economy. Through a holistic assessment of both the theory, empirical studies and the use of the Eurozone as a case study, the authors opined that Nigeria can benefit from the ECOWAS Monetary Union. The analysis in this paper is both timely and endogenous when considered alongside the 2014-2017 forex crisis.

The third article entitled “Economic diversification in Nigeria: Lessons from other countries of Africa”. The findings of this study revealed that diversification is not only a Nigerian problem, several African countries have diversification issues. Secondly, it is a complex process, and economic diversification needs an enabling environment, the right institutional mix (financial, legal, regulatory and market institutions), the necessary infrastructure, human capital development, entrepreneurship combined with the right policy mix sustained over a considerable period.

The fourth article entitled “Energy Efficiency in small and medium scale enterprises (SMEs) and economic growth In Nigeria”. This study focused on the energy efficiency in small and medium scale enterprises (SMEs) market, aiming to develop a broader understanding of the key actors, structure and dynamics of the current market and an effective de-compositive study; identify the energy/ SMEs conservations towards the growth of Nigerian GDP and financial opportunities available to them.          

The fifth article entitled “Trade Liberalization and Productivity in the Nigerian Manufacturing Sector”. Using firm-level data collected for the manufacturing sector in Nigeria the authors constructed a pseudo-panel data set to analyse the effects of trade liberalization on productivity of firms in the Foods, Beverages and Tobacco, Non-metallic Mineral Products and Woods, Wood Products and Furniture sub-sectors. The results obtained were indicative of the position that whereas the import aspect of trade liberalization impedes productivity of firms across more sub-sectors, the exports component enhances productivity of firms in all the sub-sectors examined in the industry. Hence, measures aimed at encouraging exports would be relatively more effective in improving productivity.

The sixth and final paper entitled “Macroeconomic determinants of solid mineral export price in Nigeria, 1981 – 2017”. The authors observed that fluctuation in export prices of solid minerals affected investment in the sector with its concomitant effect on government revenue thereby creating imbalances in the economy. The study revealed solid mineral export prices had long-run relationship with their determinants. In the short run, it was discovered that solid mineral export price had a positive and significant response to changes in exchange rate. In summary the authors posited government should consider low interest rates to enable investors obtain loans for importation of equipment for use in the sector.

JESG - Volume 2 Issue 1 2019

In this issue of the journal, we present four articles that are rather insightful and, in many respects, thought provoking as it relates to access to finance, debt levels in Nigeria as well as unemployment. The first article in this volume entitled “On the Effect of Financial Development on Unemployment in Nigeria: Do Measures of Financial Development Matter? The author opined governments globally aim to provide decent employment for its citizenry. However, this goal has become unattainable in many countries, particularly in developing countries such as Nigeria. Using various financial development indicators and employing ARDL as a method of estimation, the authors in their empirical analysis found that only financial system deposit to GDP has the potential to reduce the unemployment rate in the short-run and the long-run. Other financial indicators such as credit to private sector, financial liquidity, financial efficiency and financial stability only reduce the unemployment rate in the short run.

The second article entitled “The impact of public debt on investment: Evidence from Nigeria” The author examined the upward trend in the debt profile of Nigeria and the corresponding increase in the volume of investment as well as the recent decline in foreign direct investment inflow into Nigeria. In this study, the author specifically investigated the impact of the components of public debts on the various forms of investment in Nigeria both in the short-run and the long-run using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) framework over the period, 1981-2016. The empirical results revealed domestic debt improves both private and public investment in the short-run and long-run that is, domestic debt crowds-in both private and public investment but it does not attract FDI. The results also showed that external debt crowds-in private investment both in the short-run and the long-run; crowds-out public investment; and does not influence FDI.

The third article entitled “Financial liberalization and Small and Medium Enterprise Performance in Nigeria” from 1970 - 2017 was examined using the Ordinary Least Square (OLS) technique. It specifically analyzed the impact of financial liberalization on the performance of SMEs in the wholesale and retail trade sector where SMEs are commonly found in Nigeria. The periods before and after the liberalization policy in 1986 were compared to determine whether the SMEs performed better in the post-policy era. A financial liberalization index was constructed and used as explanatory variable alongside other variables. Empirical results revealed that financial liberalization had a significant positive impact on the performance of SMEs in the wholesale and retail trade sector. Other interesting findings can be found in this article.

In the fourth article entitled “Financial inclusion in a developing country: An assessment of the Nigerian journey the authors eloquently set out to investigate whether the financial inclusion goals set in 2012 by the National Financial Inclusion Strategy committee to reduce the levels of financial exclusion has been achieved. The findings reveal that, there have been sensible gains in increasing the levels of financial inclusion on a macro-perspective: more men and women are gaining access to financial services and products. However, a breakdown of the financial inclusion data on geo-political arrangements tells a different story. Financial inclusion in Nigeria is not even, with financial exclusion rates significantly higher in North East and North West Nigeria, where exclusion rates are above 60%. Southern geo-political regions have better financial exclusion rates, with financial exclusion rates below 35%, In general, women tend to have higher financial exclusion rates than men, rural population have a higher financial exclusion rate than urban areas.

JESG - Volume 2 Issue 2 2019

The first issue of the 4th Volume of the DBN Journal of Economics and Sustainable Growth presents four papers with diverse focus areas but a central theme of investigating how various variables affect growth and development in Nigeria.

The first paper, titled Inclusiveness and Growth, explores the negative relationship between unemployment and GDP growth rate in Nigeria. It determines the point at which the relationship turns positive as a result of poverty and increased inequality. The paper recommends an inclusive approach to attaining sustainable growth.

The second paper, titled Innovative Informal Sector Financing, presents empirical evidence on the impact of the Igbo Apprentice System on the growth of small businesses in Nigeria. The study finds that businesses owned by graduates of the Igbo Apprentice System experience significant levels of growth different from businesses owned by non-graduates of the System.

The third paper is titled Investigating the Impact of International Remittance and Value Added Tax (VAT) on Household Welfare in Nigeria. The paper measures impact on variables like household consumption, out of pocket health expenses, etc., and finds that both remittances and VAT affect household welfare significantly and in opposing directions.

The last paper, titled the Role of SMEs in Tackling Unemployment in Nigeria, examines the contribution of small business to solving the unemployment problems in Nigeria. It assesses the impact of variables like population growth on the rate of unemployment in comparison to the rate of employment generated by small businesses.

The authors of all the papers have carefully laid out their research, methodology, and findings to ensure a robust contribution to the relevant fields of research. The hope is that these will engender future research and, more importantly, well-informed and constructed policy discourse for the economic advancement and development of Nigeria.

JESG - Volume 4 Issue 1 2021

The Journal of Economics and Sustainable Growth is proud to publish its first volume through the Development Bank of Nigeria in its first year of operation. This is quite a milestone for the Bank as it positions itself as an intellectual leader in the development finance space in the country. The journal seeks to publish scholarly research and commentary on developments in economics and finance in Nigeria and Africa at large. Indeed, the primary focus is on applied and policy-oriented works which ultimately serves as a basis for public policy discussions on Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) in the country.

In the journals inaugural issue, we have painstakingly insured a diverse representation of scholarly works that span from corporate insolvency and economic growth, to topics on ICT in reducing information asymmetry for financial sector competition.

The first article on corporate insolvency posits a change in the overall management of corporate insolvency is of paramount importance in Nigeria. The author argues that rescuing an insolvent company is more advantageous to stakeholders with economic interests in it than liquidation by demonstrating that if a distressed company is rescued and returned to profitability, not only will it be able, over time, to meet all of its financial obligations to its body of creditors, but the company will also survive and continue to provide jobs for the employees, make tax revenue contributions to the state as well as ensure customers are not deprived of the goods or services provided by the company. In the final analysis, the author posits contributions are vital to the growth of a country’s economy all of which would be lost if the company ceases to exist.

The second article featured in the journal is empirical in nature on financial liberalization and business entry nexus in sub Saharan Africa. The authors examined whether the outcome of the financial liberalization strategy adopted in the African continent for the past two and half decades promoted new business entrants.

In the third article the author examined the role of information and communication technology in complementing information sharing bureaus (or private credit bureaus and public credit registries) for financial sector competition in 53 countries in Africa. This is a robust study that highlights several takeaways.

In the fourth article, another empirical work in which the author examined the impact of mobile money on prices and output in Nigeria between 2008 – 2016. Although the article highlights interesting results, the big takeaway is that the government and policymaker should encourage the use of mobile money to achieve price and output stability. Furthermore, the author opined policy makers should develop avenues of controlling mobile money transactions to channel macroeconomic variables in the desired direction towards achieving the desired policy goals.

The last article in our inaugural issue examines the impact of SME financing and inclusive growth in Nigeria from 1990 to 2016. The authors adopted the ARDL model and the Error correction model. In a nutshell, they contend under the review period that SMEs have not had the level of impact primarily due to the interest rate of loans.

On a final note, permit me to take the opportunity to thank the Board of Directors of the Development Bank of Nigeria (DBN), the Management team led by Mr. Tony Okpanachi MD/CEO, all the staff of DBN and last but certainly not the least, our contributors to the first issue. Without each of your contributions this novel idea would not come to fruition. It is my hope that the overall content of this issue spurs the imagination of all and begins to drive a shift in the strategy of policy makers.

JESG - Volume 1 Issue 1 2018

In the journals second issue, we have continued to present a diverse range of topics covering development finance and economics. Topics such as Financial Development and Manufacturing output nexus in Nigeria: The role of institutional quality, to Foreign aid and sustainable inclusive growth in Africa. All the articles provide some insights and policy implications for policy makers and stakeholders in general to consider.

The first article on Financial Development and Manufacturing output nexus in Nigeria: The role of institutional quality examined the mediating role of institutional quality in the relationship between financial development and manufacturing output in Nigeria during the period from 1984 to 2016. To achieve this objective, the researchers utilized autoregressive distributed lag method (ARDL) to determine the short-run and long-run effects of financial development and that of its interaction with institutional quality indicators (democratic accountability, bureaucratic quality and control of corruption) on manufacturing output. In short, the findings revealed that financial development contributes positively to manufacturing output in the long-run. However, this contribution was moderated downwards by institutional quality indicators.

The second article featured in the journal is empirical in nature titled “Foreign aid and sustainable inclusive growth in Africa”. The researchers empirical work was motivated by recent pronouncement that extreme poverty has been reducing in all regions globally for the exception of Africa and Nigeria being the new poverty capital of the world. To be sure, the study was based on 53 African countries with data for the period 2005-2012 and Generalised Method of Moments. The adopted foreign aid variables include: aid for social infrastructure, aid for economic infrastructure, aid to the productive sector, aid to the multi sector, programme assistance, action on debt and humanitarian assistance. The results revealed that whereas foreign aid improves inclusive human development in the short-run, it decreases it in the long term. Policy implications are discussed in the article.

In the third article the researchers examined greenhouse gas emissions reduction in Africa adopting a time series panel data analysis from the period 1995 to 2014. A unit root test was carried out on all the variables in order to ascertain its stationarity and it revealed the variables were integrated in order l(1) and l(0). After the cointegration test, it was discovered that the variables were cointegrated, so it became necessary to conduct a VECM analysis and affirmed that agriculture (AGRIC) was positive to food security (FPI. In the final analysis, the researchers recommended increased efforts in creating more incentives which will contribute positively towards the reduction of gas emission in agriculture should be very important to all in Africa.

In the fourth and final article for this issue the researcher examined the effect of public debt on financial development between 1981 and 2016 using Dynamic Ordinary Least Square (DOLS). The focused variables are financial development and public debt. The ratio of private credits to GDP, the ratio of broad money, M2 to GDP and the ratio of commercial bank asset to the sum of commercial bank asset and Central Bank asset are used to measure financial development which is the dependent variable. The control variables include GDP deflator, lending rate, gross fixed capital formation, and government expenditure. The results of the study revealed that public debt has a positive effect on financial development in Nigeria. This, therefore, supports the safe asset view. Thus, public borrowing which serves as a safe asset for financial intermediaries will encourage lending to the private sectors which will ultimately increase financial development and economic growth. Furthermore, the researcher opined if government borrowing and private credit are channeled to the productive sector of the economy, the economy will grow which will ultimately promote economic development in Nigeria.

On a final note, permit me to take the opportunity to thank the Board of Directors of the Development Bank of Nigeria (DBN), the Management team led by Mr. Tony Okpanachi MD/CEO, all the staff of DBN and last but certainly not the least, our contributors to the second issue. Because without each of your contributions, this novel idea would not come to fruition. It is my hope that the imagination of all readers of the DBN Journal of Economics and Sustainable Growth and the DBN Working Papers Series is broadened and a shift in policy direction begins to take shape.

JESG - Volume 1 Issue 2 2018

In this issue of the journal, we present six articles, a diverse representation of scholarly works that are rather insightful and, in many respects, riveting as it spans from trade to government expenditure as well as to remittances and economic growth. The first article in this volume entitled “Analyzing Terms of Trade Volatility for Nigeria: Do Terms of Trade Volatility Have Asymmetric Effects in Nigeria?” empirically analyzed terms of trade in Nigeria using quarterly time series data from the World Bank database ranging from 1981 to 2016. The author painstakingly showed through the study that times of adverse terms of trade shocks have more marked effects than it does in good times.

The second article is entitled “The Determinants of Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises’ (MSMEs) Performances in Nigeria: Evidence from Business Enterprise Survey”. The authors combined the structure conduct performance, efficiency structure and business environment factors to provide new evidence on the major determining factors of MSMEs’ performance in Nigeria.

The third article entitled “Impact of Financial Development on Merchandise Trade in Nigeria: A Disaggregate Analysis” is another empirical work, investigating the relationship between well-developed financial systems on exports and imports as well as its extended impact on economic growth.

There is a need to understand the influences of government expenditures on growth in Nigeria. The authors of the fourth article entitled “The Influence of Government Expenditure on Economic Growth in Nigeria” investigates the degree of government expenditure shocks on the growth rate of GDP in Nigeria. They also show how this influence can be a parameter for measuring economic growth in the future.

In the fifth article, entitled “The Nexus Between Financial Development and Merchandise Export. Fresh Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) using Dynamic Simultaneous-Equation S Models” the authors eloquently set out to investigate the causal link between financial development and merchandise exports for SSA countries over the period 1986 to 2016. They found evidence that although positive bi-causal relationship in finance-export nexus exists in some SSA countries, the eve of financial development is detrimental to trade in some other SSA countries.

The last article in this issue is entitled “Remittances, Financial Development and Economic Growth in Nigeria”. The author took a different approach to studying remittances. He eloquently examined the role financial development can play in enhancing the impact of remittances on economic growth in Nigeria; a rare country-specific study on remittances and growth.

A final thought, it is my hope that this issue of the journal triggers some policy discourse that can be implemented for the betterment of society.

JESG - Volume 3 Issue 1 2020

JESG - Volume 5 Issue 3 2023

This issue of the DBN Journal of Economics and Sustainable Growth, presents four articles with themes on areas such as national debts in Africa, exchange rate instability and how financial development as well as youth development can improve economic growth in Nigeria.

The first article entitled “A Looming Debt Crisis Narrative for Developing Countries: Consequences and Policy Implications” examines the debt problem of selected developing countries in Africa to ascertain how well borrowed funds are utilized in these countries by examining the ratio of public debt to GDP over a 4-year period.

The second article on “Growing the Nigerian Economy: Embracing A Youth Development Approach” takes a close examination on the contraction in the Nigerian economy over the years as a result of the decline in the price of crude oil. The author suggests a new approach to growing the economy through Youth Development Initiative which will strengthen the youth and provide critical solutions to the already existing economic problems.

The third article in this issue – “The Impact of exchange rate instability on productivity growth in Nigeria: Any role for financial development?” - examines the impact of financial development on economic productivity in times of exchange rates instability in Nigeria. The article highlights the need to develop the Nigerian financial sector in order to minimise effects of exchange rate volatility on economic productivity.

The author of the last article employed an empirical approach to measure the impact of certain financial development indicators on economic development in Nigeria. The article entitled “Financial Development and Economic Growth in Nigeria“. According to the author, to enhance economic growth in Nigeria, the Central Bank must encourage channelling of credit and liquidity to the private sector and the government must diversify the economy to limit the usual impact of external shock on the economy.

JESG - Volume 3 Issue 2 2020

The second issue of the 4th Volume of the DBN Journal of Economics and Sustainable Growth presents six papers with diverse themes around international trade, stock market performance, credit flows and climate finance.

The first article titled, Energy Consumption and International Trade, examines the connection between Nigeria’s energy consumption and International trade. The author shows that energy consumption significantly improves total trade and recommends that policymakers should consider the tradeoffs between overall energy consumption and international trade to avoid unwanted consequences on the environment.

In the second article, Cross-Border Trade and Economic Growth, the authors investigate the growth effects of cross-border trade in Nigeria and Cote D'Ivoire and conclude that international trade is significantly beneficial to both economies and West Africa at large.

The third article, Political Regime and Stock Market Performance compares the Nigerian stock market's performances in the military and civilian regimes. The author of this article advocates for regulators to implement policies that can reduce volatility in the stock market.

The authors of the fourth article, Exchange Rate and Stock Price Links in Nigeria, examine the relationship between the exchange rate and stock prices in Nigeria. The authors find a positive relationship between both variables using the Vector Error Correction Model.

Credit Flows in Business and Credit Ratios: Sectorial Distribution and Economic Growth in Nigeria, explores, through empirical analysis, the effect of commercial banks’ lending activities on the Nigerian economy. The authors recommend an overhaul in the banks' lending policies, in the Nigerian business environment, and in sectoral policies.

The final paper titled Climate Change and Finance contains a comprehensive summary of previous research on the interaction of climate change and finance with a focus on financing low-carbon urban infrastructure. The author hopes to engender further research on the financial implications of climate change risks.

JESG - Volume 4 Issue 2 2021

The first issue of the 5th Volume of the DBN Journal of Economics and Sustainable Growth presents four articles with diverse themes ranging from Examining the Response of Inflation to the Boom-Bust Cycle of Oil Price: Evidence from Nigeria; Foreign Direct Investment, Trade Openness, and Industrial Sector Employment in Nigeria; the Effect of Global Value Chains (GVC) on Employment in Nigeria; and finally, a Review of Risk Preferences and Beliefs in Shaping Household Financial Decisions.

The first article, titled, Examining the Response of Inflation to the Boom-Bust Cycle of Oil Price: Evidence from Nigeria, investigates the (a)symmetric response of inflation in Nigeria to the boom-and-bust cycle of oil price in the framework of the linear autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) and non-linear ARDL models respectively. From the findings, the result of the ARDL model showed no evidence that changes in oil prices significantly affect inflation. However, the results of the NARDL model suggest that positive changes in oil prices have positive and significant effects on inflation. In contrast, negative changes in oil prices yield insignificant negative results in almost all the specifications.

In the second article, titled, Foreign Direct Investment, Trade Openness, and Industrial Sector Employment in Nigeria, the authors examine the employment effects of FDI and trade openness in Nigeria’s industrial sector during the period 1991-2020 using the ARDL approach to cointegration and error correction modelling (ECM). From the result of the findings, the result showed that FDI and trade openness adversely affect industrial sector employment in the short and long run. The study gives further evidence to show that industrial sector employment is adversely affected by real exchange rate appreciation.

TThe third article on the Effect of Global Value Chains (GVC) on Employment in Nigeria examined the GVC participation employment impacts along with different economic sectors, including the agricultural, industrial, and services sectors. The study employed the Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares regression model for the estimation. From the results of the findings, the result showed that only backward GVC participation contributes positively to total employment. At sectoral levels, industrial sector employment benefited from the total, forward and backward GVC participation, while agricultural sector employment only benefits from total and forward GVC participation. However, no evidence showed that services sector employment benefits from GVC participation.

The author of the fourth article on a Review of Risk Preferences and Beliefs in Shaping Household Financial Decisions investigated the overview of household finance with respect to the determinants of the composition of household assets and liabilities, risk preferences and beliefs. The findings showed that household assets and liabilities are driven by risk preferences, beliefs or expectations and other factors. Household assets consist of human capital and tangible assets. Tangible assets consist of real assets and financial assets. Risk preference is sensitive to wealth levels, consumption commitments, gender, intellectual ability, background risk, past experiences, age, and other personal attributes of households.

I welcome policymakers, researchers, operators in the MSME ecosystem and all interested parties to read this issue and past issues of the DBN Journal of Economics and Sustainable Growth

JESG - Volume 5 Issue 1 2022

The third issue of the 4th Volume of the DBN Journal of Economics and Sustainable Growth presents four articles with diverse themes around impact of fiscal policies on the growth of SMEs in Nigeria, Agriculture credit guarantee scheme fund and Agriculture performance, COVID-19 Pandemic, Government Policy Responses and Stock Market Performance and finally models on financial stability and the intermediation puzzle.

The first article observed that the tax policy is one of the major factors prohibiting SME performance in Nigeria. The authors in this study selected 352 SMEs from the World Bank’s Enterprise Survey and relied on multiple regression analysis to determine the impact of fiscal policy (taxation) on the performance of SME’s and to also identify other factors affecting the operation of SMEs in Nigeria. To estimate the multiple regression models, the study employed the Ordinary Least Square method (OLS), Logit and Probit approaches for robustness. Overall, findings revealed that legal/ownership status, ease to access of electricity, ease of access to finance, capacity utilization and theft are significant determinants of SME’s growth in Nigeria.

The second article on Agriculture credit guarantee scheme fund examined Credit financing deficit as one of the key challenges to vibrant agricultural performance in Nigeria. The Nigerian government in 1977 introduced the agricultural credit guarantee scheme fund (ACGSF) to encourage banks to increase and sustain lending to agriculture. Although several empirical studies have examined the linear effect of ACGSF on agricultural performance, empirical studies are yet to examine its effects on agricultural performance at different values. The study seeks to fill the gap. Data for the study covered 1981 to 2019 and were analyzed using summary statistics, augmented Dickey-Fuller test and threshold regression. Agricultural performance was proxied with real agriculture Gross Domestic Product as a percentage of total real GDP. The regression results show that below 68399.7 (₦’ Thousand), ACGSF has a significant positive effect on agricultural performance and a negative effect beyond 1059993 (₦’ Thousand). The real exchange rate has a significant positive effect on agricultural performance while the real interest rate has an insignificant effect. The study concludes that there is an inverted U-shaped relationship between ACGSF and agricultural performance in Nigeria.

The third article which is rather timely examines the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic, government responses and stock market performance. This study examines the reaction of stock market returns to the COVID-19 pandemic (cases and deaths) and government policy interventions (GPIs) using the indices of stock markets of 11 African countries. The author employed a combination of times series (OLS) and panel (pooled OLS and panel VAR) estimation methods. Evidence from the time series revealed that announcements of COVID-19 confirmed cases leads to a decline in stock returns in countries like Cote D’Ivoire, Egypt, Morocco, Nigeria and Uganda by 0.005%, 0.003%, 0.012%, 0.011% and 0.014% respectively. Similarly, the announcement of GPIs also results in a decline in stock returns in countries like Cote D’Ivoire, Kenya, Morocco, Namibia and Nigeria by 0.002%, 0.035%, 0.035%, 0.022% and 0.048% respectively. The COVID-19 confirmed deaths, however, do not have a significant effect on stock returns except in Kenya (0.004%) and South Africa (0.032%) where it exhibits a positive effect.

Finally, the fourth article on models of financial stability examined the effect of financial intermediation on financial stability in Nigerian financial market. The aim of the study was to investigate and analyze the puzzle on finance and growth, as well as growth and finance. Financial development and real Gross Domestic Product can be modeled as a function of narrow money supply, broad money supply, market capitalization, monetary aggregate, net domestic credit, and total savings. Ordinary least square (OLS) method of cointegration, Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) unit root test, Granger causality test and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) was used. The findings proved that narrow money supply and market capitalization have negative impact on financial sector development while broad money supply; monetary aggregate, net domestic credit and total savings have positive impact on financial sector development.

I welcome policy makers, researchers, operators in the MSME ecosystem and all interested parties to read this issue and past issues of the DBN journal and working paper series.

JESG - Volume 4 Issue 3 2022

JESG - Volume 6 Issue 1 2024

This study examines the effect of oil revenue on the
distribution of economic growth across different quantiles in Nigeria over the
period from 1981 to 2018. To achieve this objective, the study employs a
quantile regression method. For robustness, the quantile regression results are
compared with the OLS estimation results. From the OLS results, it is found
that oil revenue has a positive and significant effect on economic growth.
Precisely, an increase in oil revenue by 1% leads to an increase in economic
growth by 0.184%. However, the quantile regression results show that oil
revenue’s positive effect on economic growth varies over quantiles. At lower
quantiles (5th, 10th), even though oil revenue exerts a positive effect on
economic growth, the effect is not statistically significant. At the 25th
quantile, an increase in oil revenue by 1% leads to an increase in economic
growth by 0.137% which further increase to 0.186% and 0.279% at the 50th
quantile and 75th quantile respectively. At the upper quantiles (90th and
95th), the effect of oil revenue on economic growth becomes statistically
insignificant even though it is still positive. In fact, by controlling for
other determinants of economic growth such as investment, human capital and
trade openness, oil revenue losses a significant effect on the economy. This
study further finds that human capital and investment spur economic growth
while trade openness seems not to have any significant effect on it across the
quantiles. Given the findings, it is very important for policymakers to
judiciously use the oil revenue by investing it in the critical sectors of the
economy, especially during the windfall.

DBN Journal of Economics & Sustainable Growth

Aim & Scope

DBN Journal of Economics & Sustainable Growth

DBN Journal of Economics & Sustainable Growth

Aim & Scope

DBN Journal of Economics & Sustainable Growth

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